Die Presse, an Austrian daily newspaper, reports that according to a recent survey conducted by OGM (n = 501), 68% of the Austrian populace believes that life will be harder in 2015. 51% believe that they will be poorer in ten years. Only 9% think life will be easier in ten years and only a meager 6% think that they will be richer after a decade has past.
The good news is that Austrians (especially journalists), who have always loved to cast dark shadows over the outlook for Austria's economy, have consistently been wrong. Their forecast were ex post completely unjustified as the figure given below shows. Why can't they say: "We are already one of the richest nations in the world, and things will probably get better, as they have in the past?"
Update (I$ in 1996 Constant Prices, see comment section):
(Data: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002)
The good news is that Austrians (especially journalists), who have always loved to cast dark shadows over the outlook for Austria's economy, have consistently been wrong. Their forecast were ex post completely unjustified as the figure given below shows. Why can't they say: "We are already one of the richest nations in the world, and things will probably get better, as they have in the past?"
Update (I$ in 1996 Constant Prices, see comment section):
(Data: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002)
Mahalanobis - am 2005-12-29 18:22 - Rubrik: economics
Brent Buckner (guest) meinte am 30. Dec, 13:47:
Looking at your chart, the numbers seem outrageous: over a 50 year interval, a 16-fold increase in real GDP per capita for the U.S. and a 32-fold increase for Austria! Hence, I went to your source. For the U.S. at least, it looks as though your starting point in 1950 should be approximately $10,000, not $1,000. Things are getting better, but not *that* fast!
Mahalanobis antwortete am 30. Dec, 17:15:
I've updated the post.
Initially I only had the relative performance of Austria in mind so using I$ in current prices wouldn't have hurt too much (I actually even thought of not labeling the ordinate). But I must admit that I really "missed" the two oil price shocks ...
Rainer (guest) meinte am 31. Dec, 04:16:
Bias
I doubt that in a 10 year projection only the economic aspects are relevant for a person. I guess that personal aging and even the fear of death creates a bias for a significant portion of the interviewed people. Do you know of other results that show deviation of autrians "gloom"-expectations compared to other countries?
Mahalanobis antwortete am 31. Dec, 07:23:
One
of the questions I referred to was: "Do you think that in the year 2015 Austrians will be poorer, richer, or as well of as today? ("Was glauben Sie: Werden die Österreicher im Jahr 2015 ärmer, reicher oder gleich wohlhabend sein wie heute?") There's probably not much room for interpretation.But I agree that the answer to "will life will be harder in the future" could reflect a biological truism. The problem of getting old came to my mind too, but more due to the fact that we had a pension reform only recently.
I know that Vienna ranks among the top 10 (or even top 5) in most quality of life surveys on the one hand, but on the other there are surveys around stating that Vienna has one of the highest rates of depressed people. Sometimes I really think that the only thing what people here really enjoy is grumbling ;-D.
Rainer (guest) antwortete am 31. Dec, 12:18:
if
if you think that you live in the world's leading nation for glooming and grumbling - I have to disappoint you - you're only number #2 :).
