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Once I attended a "Gödel Lecture" on the role of mathematics in financial markets. Unfortunatley, I didn't had the courage to ask the lecturer (Hans Föllmer, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) after his the-stock-exchange-is-a-huge-casino-presentation whether he had read "A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street" (a must read for people working in his field). I heavily recommend every economics student (even those with no mathematical background) to read the superb introduction to this book (keywords: Random Walk and Efficient Market Hypothesis).


ad introduction: Watch out, forecastability and predictability are not synonyms. Predictability (a property of a random variable in relation to an information set) is necessary, but not sufficient for forecastability, as the latter requires knowledge of what information is relevant, and how it enters the causal mechanism.