about me
game theory
... more
Subscribe Weblog

For central banks it poses a big problem when inflation is not "home made" but imported through higher energy prices. In this case inflation is not the result of a booming domestic economy but of external factors (political turmoil, peak oil, ...). Interest rate hiking be the central bank would be pretty ineffective except when it leads to a strengthening of the home currency.

Thanks to the ECB statistical Data Warehouse one can now easily download data on the contribution to the inflation rate (in percentage points) of various components of the harmonized consumer price index. Currently, 50% of the yearly inflation rate in the Euro area is due to higher energy prices even though energy only makes up 10% of the index.
The good news: Many people look at the price of oil as a crude proxy for energy prices. Though it is true that the variation in the crude oil price explains the variation in consumer energy prices very well, the "beta" is pretty low. Crude oil prices (in EUR) have increased 700% since 1999 whereas consumer energy prices have "only" increased 90%. Given that many market participants think that at current oil prices the price elasticity of demand is no longer negligible the pressure might abate.
Veracitor (guest) meinte am 26. Apr, 04:27:
can't "import" inflation without currency peg
Without a currency peg (or perhaps a de-facto currency peg when most trade contracts are denominated in some foreign currency), there can be no large amount of "imported inflation." A country with an independent currency should see exchange-rate changes, not inflation, when some foreign currency is debased (e.g., when the US Federal Reserve prints dollars), though there might be some short-run distortion.

To put that another way, just because the US dollar, for example, is debased causing oil to rise in dollar terms, any country using a currency which trades freely against the dollar should see their currency rise against said dollar, minimizing any change in the price of oil in local-currency units. 
Mahalanobis antwortete am 26. Apr, 21:47:
Imported inflation
is inflation due to increases in prices of imports. The chart shows the crude oil price per barrel in EUR. Oil is getting more expensive in real terms. USD is weak but not as weak to justify USD price increases in oil of several hundred per cent!

To put that another way: I'm not talking about importing "foreign inflation" that was caused by monetary easing abroad (as you note, a flexible exchange rate should take care of this). I'm talking about having to pay more for an imported good because of supply and demand factors. To keep the price of this product constant, you would have to have deflation somewhere else (domestic goods). And that's not so easy without hurting the domestic (in this case eurozone) economy. 
roshni (guest) antwortete am 7. Jan, 07:04:
so nice
WFLSports is the premier destination for Fantasy Sports action! We offer daily, weekly, monthly fantasy leagues for more than 20 sports! Are you tired of the season long fantasy commitments and all of the hastles that comes along with it? Waiver wire orders, fishy trades, members not paying, a dictator for a commissioner.
Fantasy online betting basketball 
Muskamn (guest) antwortete am 11. Jan, 15:27:
I have to say that the information here was the most complete that I found anywhere. I am definitely bookmarking this to come back and express later. website design 
maskodok antwortete am 15. Jan, 01:49:
Interesting topic for a blog. I have been searching the Internet for fun and came upon your website. Fabulous post. Thanks a ton for sharing your knowledge! It is great to see that some people still put in an effort into managing their websites. I'll be sure to check back again real soon.
Mobil Sedan COrolla,Idrpoker.com agen Texas poker Online Indonesia Terpercaya, Mobil Sedan COrolla, Cipto Junaedy 
kimcil (guest) antwortete am 7. Apr, 11:41:
know that the preflash should serve as a red-eye-reduction-tool... *turns red*. One day I will learn how to remove red-eyes with photoshop. There are lots of tutorials on the web but none of them suggests certain colour settings. My edited eyes always look so "plastic".
alfamart official partner merchandise fifa piala dunia brazil 2014
Unit Link Terbaik di Indonesia Commonwealth Life Investra Link 
begedir antwortete am 3. May, 17:06:
I have to say that the information here was the most complete that I found anywhere. cara mudah belajar bahasa inggris , aku ingin hamil , kata kata romantis bahasa inggris I am definitely bookmarking this to come back and express later. 
clothing buttons (guest) meinte am 25. Oct, 09:39:
clothing buttons
A last bit of trimming Flag Buttons concerns the lapels. Most jacket natural Coconut Buttons lapels include a button hole on the Shell Buttons left lapel, roughly an inch below the Wood Buttons gorge,which is generally crystal Glass Buttons sewn shut.On very high quality jackets,Metal Buttons pmya999 there will be a corresponding Overcoat Buttons button on the right lapel,though Pearl Buttons this is merely an element of style,Plastic buttons as the lapels of a suit jacket are never clothing buttons turned up in the manner of a military uniform.wholesale buttons On most any suit,the buttonhole cheap buttons can be opened, and on the very best. 
alebrtenti meinte am 4. Feb, 08:27:
on the post
the graph is really awesome and help the students to get their studies complete in no time. the students can get
Descriptive Essays || Expository Essays || High School Essays || Law Essays || Persuasive Essays
right now. 
Bitcoin Mining P2Pool (guest) meinte am 18. Feb, 09:37:
so nice
Start mining with no registration. Pick your cryptocurrency and point your miner at the address provided for that currency. Use your payment address and anything as a password. Make yourself some passive income with your computer - depending on the coin. The EASY way to mine, p2pool provides more coins over time than traditional pools and helps prevent 51% attacks. 
ARL (guest) meinte am 23. Feb, 05:13:
A great experience Jasa SEO 
Healthy Weight Loss With slim pro (guest) antwortete am 25. Apr, 08:49:
nice site
slim pro is specially meant for Over-weight people as being Heavy weight is very common. slim pro is Rich Whey Hydrolyzed Protein complementary made from Cow’s milk with no further additions.slim pro is available in the market to remove fat. 
amyhamilton meinte am 22. Apr, 09:55:
awareness of many people this topic
I am new to this blogging world and I spent almost an hour on this site reading some top quality blogs. I will definitely visit this site again because I learned a lot and got very helpful informatio.Thanx alotapartments in dubai.
Amy Hamilton 
Sarah Walker meinte am 26. Apr, 13:03:
This is a superb work with well-scripted graph, engaging content that is full of original and sensible views. Much of your informative content is in line with my way of thinking.-
Assignment Experts by assignment kingdom || chemistry assignment writer || assignment editing by assignmentkingdom.co.uk 
robin11223 (guest) meinte am 4. May, 14:32:
I have a hard time describing my thoughts on content, but I really felt I should here. Your article is really great. I like the way you wrote this information.
ttlwu meinte am 21. May, 11:14:
this is really nice to read..informative post is very good to read..thanks a lot!
ttlwu meinte am 24. May, 09:46:
I think
Thanks for the post and great tips..even I also think that hard work is the most important aspect of getting success..
ttlwu meinte am 4. Jun, 13:20:
I think
Thank you very much for writing such an interesting article on this topic. This has really made me think and I hope to read more.
brustvergrößerung preis 
ttlwu meinte am 7. Jun, 13:46:
I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well. Thanks...
children learning reading 
ttlwu meinte am 10. Jun, 13:34:
I think
I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post. Now you make it easy for me to understand and implement the concept. Thank you for the post.
michael fiore capture his heart ebook 
ttlwu meinte am 12. Jun, 13:14:
I think
Thank you so much for sharing this great blog.Very inspiring and helpful too.Hope you continue to share more of your ideas.I will definitely love to read.
thscp1122 meinte am 6. Jul, 14:04:
Excellent and very exciting site. Love to watch. Keep Rocking.
go ahead and try it 
even featured on The Verge (guest) meinte am 23. Jul, 13:14:
ve "only" increased 90%. Given that many market participants think that at current oil prices the price elasticity of demand is no longer negligible the pressure might abate. 
tsflw meinte am 24. Jul, 15:13:
This is really a nice and informative, containing all information and also has a great impact on the new technology. Thanks for sharing it best reviews 
Tampa Bay Homes For Sale (guest) meinte am 7. Aug, 11:47:
Tampa Bay Homes For Sale
from the F test (Chow test) framework. This includes methods to fit, plot and test fluctuation processes (e.g. CUSUM, MOSUM, recursive/moving estimates) an Tampa Bay Homes For Sale 
tsflw meinte am 7. Aug, 14:11:
This is a smart blog. I mean it. You have so much knowledge about this issue, and so much passion. You also know how to make people rally behind it, obviously from the responses. e cigarette reviews 
tsflw meinte am 9. Aug, 14:30:
The information you have posted is very useful. The sites you have referred was good. Thanks for sharing.. taxi lech 
peter (guest) meinte am 12. Aug, 12:48:
As e-commerce practitioners we have to shift to a testing mentality rather than the big annual redesign workshop. debt relief 
tsflw meinte am 16. Aug, 15:48:
Im no expert, but I believe you just made an excellent point. You certainly fully understand what youre speaking about, and I can truly get behind that. e go zigarette