Acad Ronin (guest) meinte am 15. Mar, 01:28:
cycles
What cycles? There is evidence consistent with GNP/GDP following a unit root process. I saw a study perhaps 20-30 years ago that found that the time between recessions followed a memory less distribution, the exponential I believe. The so called business cycle is just one damn thing after another.
Hedgehog (guest) antwortete am 15. Mar, 05:36:
There is more to it...
If we lived in a univariate world, where the only thing we could see were GNP/GDP, I would tend to agree that recessions are unpredictable. In contrast, we are likely to have some degree of predictability for components of a multivariate process even though, when viewed in isolation, those components behave like random walks. Think of cointegration as an extreme example.
