Projections about the global climate remind me of large-scale macro models, in that there are all sorts of interactions, feedback effects, that frustrate any theory's implications. in the 70's macroeconomists were making the models bigger and bigger, and after Chris Sims pointed out they did no better than simple ARMA models, that thread just died. I remember my old professor, future Fed member Laurence Meyer, who ran a private forecasting firm based on macro models, said it was great because no one was getting into the field any more (this was around 1987). That should have told him it was a bad field, in that young people, with nothing invested, chose not to waste their time. Of course, Meyer was able to be successful, because you can always sell such advice to old buyers, in the same way you can sell Lincoln Towncars to senior citizens.
But back to global warming. Some economists at Columbia estimate that
I remember thinking getting to be a professor at Columbia was very difficult, but this seems a pretty absurd bit of research. Have you ever seen a 6th-order polynomial in a decent academic journal?
But back to global warming. Some economists at Columbia estimate that
yields of three major crops in the United States are predicted to decrease by 25-44% under the slowest warming scenario and 60-79% under the most rapid warming scenario in our preferred model.Yikes! But read the study and you find it is predicated on extrapolating a 6th-degree polynomial. I personally am wary of squared terms, but a 6th degree polynomial is crazy. Of course the extrapolations outside the sample will be extreme.
I remember thinking getting to be a professor at Columbia was very difficult, but this seems a pretty absurd bit of research. Have you ever seen a 6th-order polynomial in a decent academic journal?
HedgeFundGuy - am 2007-04-07 00:20
(guest) meinte am 7. Apr, 06:35:
Isn't that just something like using a series estimator to be somewhat nonparametric?
Hedgehog (guest) meinte am 7. Apr, 07:53:
Are you more convinced by extrapolating a zero-degree polynomial?
Looks like zero-degree polynomial is the only thing that climate change skeptics believe in. No trends and everything is stationary under the sun...True, using sixth-degree polynomials would make me a bit nervous too, but it does not raise obvious red flags for me in the present context. At least the authors are careful enough to throw in the minimum amount of robustness checks so the results do not appear controversial if interpreted right. "Right" means with all caveats splashed across the paper, to avoid their results being spinned by agenda-driven political wackos on both sides of the aisle.
To be fair, economists often do more controversial things and sometimes get away with that. My suggestion to critics: "Try to do better if you can with the data available."
Don't economists (and econometricians) use polynomial distributed lags to deal with the curse of dimensionality in VAR?
SexBlog meinte am 7. Apr, 11:22:
Don't they say that Global climate change is based on
high solar activity? There are six sunspots now and there have been as many in ancient times when the climate was so warm that there was winepoduction in England and Greenland was called Vineland. In the face of this fact the whole climate scare appears to me like a huge confederacy of dunces.
Kevembuangga (guest) antwortete am 8. Apr, 19:33:
Who are the dunces?
Don't they say that Global climate change is based onhigh solar activity?
YES of course...
Here is the link : Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high.
But there were not sunspots PLUS greenhouse gases AND lots of populations living at the edge of carrying capacity of the land.
Quoting the article above :
Over the past 20 years, however, the number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase.
This is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth.
The "dunces" reference remind me of a joke:
- How is your uncle?
- He passed away.
- Aww, sorry, what happened?
- A bad cold.
- Oh! That's fine, colds aren't grievous...
On a more serious note I wish there were some sort of overall "market place of consequences" where we could kinda shortsell the fools ignoring the dangers to make them pay for their idiocy.
Tom (guest) antwortete am 12. Apr, 15:27:
Cake in the oven
"Over the past 20 years, however, the number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase. "Over the past 20 minutes, my oven has remained constant at 350 degrees, YET the average temperature of my cake in the oven has continued rise. Hmmm, that's wierd. Not.
Kevembuangga (guest) antwortete am 13. Apr, 12:10:
Excellent model!
Very convincing, custom made for bozos.It's the bozos which really count, they made 98% of voters and polled populations.
The Myth of Science-based Predictive Modeling
François M. Hemez1
Engineering Sciences and Applications, ESA-WR
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Gordon (guest) meinte am 7. Apr, 20:26:
Extrapolation
Whatever the degree of the polynomial, extrapolation is bad; ie. has no scientific worth.
Hedgehog (guest) antwortete am 8. Apr, 06:16:
Don't we rely on extrapolation while doing economic forecasting?
After all, linear econometric models are based on linear multivariate functions which get extrapolated get out-of-sample forecasts. Extrapolation is bad only if the underlying econometric model is fragile or based on flimsy theory. Otherwise, extrapolation can work pretty well locally if based on a credible model.But agree with you in part that the entire area of economic forecasting is not science. At best, it's only partly science. The rest is some combination of data mining, judgement, leaps of faith, and common sense...
Marcin Tustin (guest) meinte am 8. Apr, 23:54:
Ever seen a man fall down on his knees and pray to his boss's god?
I don't think you get to be a Columbia professor without being pretty politcally smart, and there's nothing smarter than visibly joining the dominant religion.
Paul N (guest) meinte am 9. Apr, 04:36:
If they used a 5th degree polynomial instead, they would have predicted an increase in yield!
Hedgehog (guest) antwortete am 9. Apr, 06:54:
Are you sure?
I am not convinced and, without seeing their data, it's hard to judge whether that your guess is correct. But it would be a good idea to try.
Kevembuangga (guest) antwortete am 9. Apr, 10:01:
Yeah! Who cares about evidence?
Alien Invasion: The Fungus That Came to CanadaMuch better to nitpick about poly order, decimals, university politics, etc...
OTOH there seem to be very good opportunities ahead for Big Pharma & als, time to "invest" wisely...