I have a similar reaction to Taleb. He sounded interesting, so I bought his book, but half way through realized he was writing about nothing. His main point is well taken, but he only has one point to make, or so it seems to me.

Still, when I think about the Long Term Capital fiasco, I cannot help but think those guys were, indeed, fooled by randomness. They had modeled everything but the unexpected -- which eventually, of course, happened.