EDS (guest) meinte am 27. Apr, 23:32:
Taleb hits it right on the mark...again.
Having read both Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, as well as every other noteworthy book closely related to this area, not just as it's applied to finance, I completely disagree with the review of the book and Taleb.No disrespect to the reference to Martin Gardner, who is basically completely unknown as compared to Taleb in terms of readership, (FBR is required reading in many schools and at many firms worldwide and The Black Swan is already a bestseller), but his model for deciding "cranks" is vastly overstated, and, in fact, would probably be capriciously applied against other brilliant thinkers and innovators, who are not authors or who don't have a history in the financial services world, should it fit the reviewer's agenda. Also, #5 absolutely cracks me up. If people weren't creating neologisms on a regular basis, our language would hardly evolve. There's no flaw in Taleb for offering his own. The populace is who decides whether something becomes integrated.
Yes Taleb refutes the work of others--even others who are heavily credentialed--but at the end of the day he makes good points. People are excellent at analzying data in reverse to fit their theories or to help explain situations, especially the unpredictable. But truly, at the end of the day, we know very little about the highly improbable. Having recently seen him speak in person, he himself said the same for himself, so it's not as if he is claiming any kind of elaborate or advanced knowledge of how to predict Black Swans, which would weaken his point.
Overall, I wonder whether the reviewer has even read the book, or is not instead merely "nexting" what he expects Taleb to say (even if Taleb is writing something totally different), based on the biases of his own experiences.
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 28. Apr, 00:32:
I just don't get it
So, if he's not saying anything general and testable, like that improbable events are consistently underexpected, but rather that specific events are unexpected...who cares?...that's trivially true for gaussian randomness or any other type (who knew Kevin Federline would be a more responsible parent than Britney Spears?). So he is saying that people can't anticipate unexpected things. Who knew! And he is courageous and farsighted enough to admit he also cannot anticipate unexpected things. Perhaps he needs a neologism for 'unexpected' so that this insight seems interesting. That people have a desire to apply a narrative to data seems obvious, we are drawn to theory, because it helps us understand the world better; the alternative is seeing things as a bunch of random events. The bottom line is that when you try to pin him down as generating an interesting scientific hypothesis, he retreats. He's the charlatan, the arrogant expert, the broker fooled by his customer flow (as opposed to randomness), the thin-skinned psuedo-scientist ..just claiming he's a seer of some vague deep truth that the 'idiots' don't see.
I find him very interesting because 1) he is thin-skinned 2) he is pompous 3) he is popular 4) he has similar interests to mine. Ravi Batra sold more books than Taleb, and was perhaps more profound. I like picking him apart because he is such an easy target, so I wish for his continued success.
EDS (guest) antwortete am 28. Apr, 01:46:
You get some of it
People cannot predict unexpected events. Yes that seems absurdly simple. But in reality we don't live it. That's what makes Taleb's book so interesting. We place a lot of value on our ability to quantify the rare event and just as dangerously we explain away our situations by using past data when we get it all wrong. I should point out that other successful books like The Wisdom of Crowds present arguments that are also plainly obvious, yet they turn into international bestsellers because of one reason "The plainly obvious gets overlooked." K & T in all of their studies present things that are fairly simplistic from a behavioral standpoint, but it takes the written word to cement them in our minds.I'm just not sure what you want Taleb to present to you in The Black Swan. You think him a charlatan. It would be far worse if we made more of the "uncertain" than he does...I don't think one person or one book could do more.
In terms of publishing success (without discussing my role in the industry, I can say that I know a great deal firsthand). Ravi Batra, whom you referenced, has had some successful books. The fact that he has outsold Taleb to this point is based simply on volume of books written and also that The Black Swan has been out barely a week.
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 28. Apr, 02:34:
I agree that a simple or obvious idea can be a very good read, I just disagreed the profundity of the point(s) in this book. Unexpected things are unexpected? People are overconfident? People try to categorize things? People try to explain events via a story? I don't think these ideas are surprising, so their exposition not interesting. In contrast, in the Wisdom of Crowds, it's not obvious the crowd average opinion is a good opinion, one might intuitively think it is average, in fact.
Steve (guest) antwortete am 2. Aug, 17:43:
Oblivious..
It's tiring to see this kind of thinking perpetuating. You obviously have no idea what the book is about when you say that "So, if he's not saying anything general and testable, like that improbable events are consistently underexpected, but rather that specific events are unexpected...who cares?...that's trivially true for gaussian randomness or any other type".If you have read it, then you should have noticed that he dislikes the general use of the gaussian curve without a stringent and cautious look at its limitations. The book deals with several kinds of randomness and explains why some can be meaninfully predicted (like the height of people), and some can't (like the return of a company). If you are really convinced the latter isn't true, try to run some predictive analyses over economic data from the past and compare the outcome with the real world result.
You kick against this guy, quoting some supposedly famous author to give credibility to your notion that he is a 'crank'. Well guess what, all great minds in history were initially ignored and ridiculed. Einstein was a patent clerk for god's sake.
Maybe when the next crisis hits you you will be prepared to deal with your own world view and be more open minded to that of Nassim.