about me
art
biz
Chess
corrections
economics
EconoSchool
Finance
friends
fun
game theory
games
geo
mathstat
misc
NatScience
... more
Profil
Logout
Subscribe Weblog

 
TalebGuy (guest) meinte am 28. Apr, 00:24:
Reviewer is mistaken
If insurance companies are the great business claimed by the reviewer to contradict Taleb, then why did reinsurance companies lose money on their underwriting activities for 19 of the last 20 years!? The reviewer is obviously out of contact with reality.

Moreover, a Katrina sized risk is now pretty close to falling into the realm of normally distributed risks, estimated by some insurers as having a probability of ~3% a year. A truly long tail risk today would be on the order of $100B, a triple Katrina, and it can be easily contemplated, had Katrina or another Category 5 storm chosen Miami or other more heavily developed area than NOLA to make landfall. The point being: having already mispriced their exposure by "selling puts" too cheaply, it can be fairly argued that insurance companies still got lucky that their losses weren't even higher.

Having LOST A LOT OF MONEY on underwriting, insurance companies only managed to climb back into the land of respectable returns thanks to their investment returns which are surely NOT sourced in a material way from selling puts or otherwise trying to collar the wildness that Taleb writes about. 
a.t. (guest) antwortete am 29. Apr, 02:57:
Gardner is a Journalist
Nassim is full professor Umass mathematics fellow at NYU Courant, moving to Wharton or LBS. Very prestigious. Gardner is a journalist. Hedgeguy is a blogger. Something in these posts is weird. 
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 29. Apr, 03:50:
Nassim is no longer a professor at Amherst, and adjunct professor at NYU is not the same as professor. But this is all ad hominem, and irrelevant to my factual counters to his hypotheses. 
a.t. (guest) antwortete am 29. Apr, 13:26:
Bitter Envy
"But this is all ad hominem, and irrelevant" who are you trying to fool? You do not want to be ad hominem? And you go after Taleb's ethnicity! You are trying everything you can
You are a crackpot some bitter unsuccessful fellow bitter bitter envious of Taleb, full of hatred. 
PM (guest) antwortete am 29. Apr, 15:23:
HedgeFundGuy is a crank
He hasn't read to book. 
MrM (guest) antwortete am 29. Apr, 20:22:
Density vs Volume of good thoughs
Black Swan have some valuable and useful insights. Unfortunately, instead of writing a nice essay, Taleb (who calls himself an essayist), chose to spread those insights into hundreds of pages. As a result, instead of leaving the impression "Wow, I should be more aware of those biases", Black Swan mostly causes the annoying feeling of "Alright, alright, I got it 150 pages ago - tell me something new now!" 
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 29. Apr, 20:41:
a.t.: Who brought up credentials first? I merely pointed out an exaggeration. Is not the Black Swan harshly critical of people and ideas? So my criticism of him and his ideas are evidence of being a 'player hater'? The lame attempt to tar me as an ethnic chauvinist?

Taleb's acolytes are just like him, hypocritical and thin-skinned. 
Kevembuangga (guest) antwortete am 2. May, 14:25:
May be a little PERSONAL thinking could help...
The commonness of 40-SD events
Plus Taleb related links from the comments of above :
We can see the causes of Cho's rampage now, so why not before?
Shattering the Bell Curve 

Name

Url

Remember my settings?

Title:

Text:


JCaptcha - you have to read this picture in order to proceed
Change Picture