There are a lot of talking heads saying that what is going on is a sane 'repricing of risk'. It's a cliche right now. But I don't think investors are not so much re-evaluating the volatility or covariance of these assets, but rather re-evaluating the expected return. They are downwardly adjusting the expected forward payments independent of the discounting function, as the probability of default for sub-prime mortgages, or LBO's, is being adjusted to more reasonable levels. Increasing the probability of default is not increasing risk so much as decreasing the expected return. They go together, of course, because higher default probability bonds have higher volatility too, but the expected return is the dog and the volatility of that return is the tail.
Eric Falkenstein - am 2007-07-27 16:10
dsquared (guest) meinte am 1. Aug, 18:55:
I wrote about this a year ago
the acid test being, of course, when did you ever see anyone try to explain a bull market in terms of people becoming *less* risk averse?http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/daniel_davies/2006/05/falling_stock_markets_and_risk.html
Eric Falkenstein antwortete am 2. Aug, 03:07:
I agree with you. Since theoretically risk is related to return, many people just assert that the Stochastic Discount Factor or Pricing Kernel just had a shock, but that is merely inferred from the change in price, and as you mentioned, it is usually applied only one way.