I think that they'll vote for it by a large margin. All of this about journalistic integrity was just posing. It was part of a process that they had to go through. But now they are faced with the real choice of taking a lot of money or being stuck in a real quagmire that they have no idea how to deal with. They are probably up right now drinking expensive wine and rationalizing.

About the trade, if you're only going to keep it on one day, how about a smaller position in the August $55 calls selling at $3.60 instead of the stock? Unless Yahoo Finance data or my arithmetic is off, the stock is about 9% up and 36% down (based on your assumptions), while the call is about 40% up and 100% down.