stxx meinte am 20. Jan, 00:11:
Where is the mistake in my calculation?
Today's 10y Treasury rate is at 4.18%. Adding a 260 BP spread yields an expected return of 6.78%. Assuming a total default in 6% of all cases the expected return on a HY investment reduces to 6.78%*0.94 = 6.373% which is higher than the expected return of a 10y Note.In your graph the HY bonds were performing better until 2001 when the global economy went into a downturn. The underperformance stopped in mid 2002 and since then the single Bs again outperformed the AAA. Hence, most of the time holding risky bonds yielded better returns than holding riskless bonds.
Are durations of the Gov't bond index and the HY bond index the same? I remember that those HY indexes have significantly smaller durations (up to two year depending on the index) than a JPM EMU benchmark. Such a difference would not adequately reflect the remuneration on taking credit risk.
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 20. Jan, 00:44:
oops
A 6.78% yield portfolio, with a 6% default rate, and a 50% recovery rate, returns 3.78% (excluding convexity issues). It's 0.94*6.78+.06*-50, not 0.94*6.78.
stxx antwortete am 20. Jan, 01:46:
Ok, I made a pretty bad mistake calculating either 6.78% or 0% performance (assuming a recovery that equals current market price) ;D. Nevertheless, what are the durations of the indexes?
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 20. Jan, 02:36:
The Gov't index is a blend of Treasuries >5yrs, so I figure it's a similar duration to the Merrill HY Index. as for
Hence, most of the time holding risky bonds yielded better returns than holding riskless bonds.
On average, over the entire 12 years, they were the same. I don't think it's reasonable to 't exclude the bad years because they bring the average down.
stxx antwortete am 20. Jan, 03:47:
First,
... sorry about my unclear formulations. I did not want to emphasize the point that risky bonds are better investments. I just wanted to say that most of the time investors are rewarded for taking risk. But, as it seems in your example, this reward is not of a permanent nature which I absolutely don't understand.I did a quick simulation on the parameters default prob (varying 30% around its mean) and recovery value (15% off by its mean) by introducing iid random variables (... and having no idea about their true distributions). After 1,000 runs I got an expected return of 3.34% with 59% of the returns within a range of 2.8% to 4.2%. Hence, the expected return should be less.
At my internship I had to play around with a few benchmarks. When stretching the duration for half a year to 4.5 years then the performance over the analysed time span (1 year) increased by 40 BP. If this is not the case here then I resign and accept your argument to be valid :D
Please note that I have a bad day doing calculations today.
stxx antwortete am 20. Jan, 03:50:
Please include the recovery value in your article
HedgeFundGuy antwortete am 20. Jan, 15:01:
good idea to put the recovery rate assumption in the text!This sample period included a big decline in rates, so anything that increases duration generates better returns.
In any case, HY seems a poor investment.