One of the neat things about efficient markets is how it is perceived by almost everyone (ie, noneconomists) as an out of touch, conservative, status quo. In fact, nothing could be more revolutionary. To tell someone that they probably can't outwit the markets, especially if they don't have any well honed edge, is the kind of cruel but kind advice most people need, but few want to accept.

Thus it's fun to see billionaires like Bill Gates commenting on the dollar. To wit:

Gates is concerned that widening US budget and trade deficits are undermining the dollar, a view which was also articulated at Davos by Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, Gerhard Schroeder, the German chancellor, and influential members of the business world.
...
"Unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar can avoid going down," Buffet said ten days ago. Gates joined the board of Berkshire Hathaway last month.

Gates was more upbeat about the economic prospects of China, which he described as a "change agent" for the next two years.

As if markets were unaware of the deficit situation. Gates and Buffet need to know that 1) the dollar is already undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis vis-a-vis Europe and close with the Yen (see the latest Big Mac Index) and 2) only revisions to current deficit projections will hurt the dollar. Instead, they look at the current deficits (in the upturn of a business cycle), and see disequilibrium that can only be fixed by a falling dollar, neglecting the existing knowledge and foresight of the FX speculators.